Betting on Democracy: When Election Day Meets Payday (and Why It's a Terrible Idea)
In recent years, a new trend has emerged at the intersection of politics and gambling: election betting. Once the domain of shadowy backroom deals and informal office pools, wagering on election outcomes has gone mainstream. Thanks to the rise of online betting platforms and prediction markets, anyone with an internet connection can now put money on their preferred candidate or party.
Yes, this might seem like harmless fun — a way to add a little extra excitement to an increasingly polarized political process. But I see some troubling implications. When we attach a financial stake to electoral outcomes, we risk distorting the very nature of political engagement.
What should be an exercise in civic duty becomes a game of personal gain.
A brief history of election betting
In the United States, wagering on presidential races was a popular pastime in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Political parties would often set up their own betting markets as a way to gauge public sentiment and generate enthusiasm for their candidates.
One of the most famous examples of early election betting occurred in the 1916 race between Woodrow Wilson and Charles Evans Hughes. A group of Wall Street traders set up a makeshift betting market on the curb outside the New York Stock Exchange. The action was so intense that trading on the Exchange itself ground to a halt as brokers abandoned their posts to place bets on the election.
While this kind of informal wagering continued throughout the 20th century, election betting remained a largely underground activity. That changed in the early 2000s with the advent of online betting exchanges like Intrade and Betfair, which allowed users to buy and sell contracts based on the outcomes of political events. Suddenly, anyone with a credit card could gamble on elections from the comfort of their own home.
In recent years, the popularity of election betting has exploded. According to a 2020 report from the political betting firm GVC, Americans wagered an estimated $1 billion on the 2020 presidential race alone. That figure is expected to grow in coming election cycles as more states legalize online gambling and prediction markets gain mainstream acceptance.
Why political gambling is so psychologically appealing
What is it about election betting that holds such allure for so many people? From a psychological standpoint, there are a few key factors at play.
1. The illusion of control
One of the main drivers of gambling behavior is the desire for control. In a world full of uncertainty and chaos, the act of placing a bet can provide a sense of agency – a feeling that we have some say in the outcome. This is especially true in the realm of politics, where individual voters can often feel powerless to influence the course of events.
By placing a bet on an election, we create a narrative in which our actions directly impact the result. If our candidate wins, we can attribute that success (at least in part) to our own predictions. If they lose, we can console ourselves with the knowledge that we at least had some skin in the game.
Either way, betting gives us a way to feel like active participants in the political process, rather than just an observer.
2. The thrill of risk
For many people, the excitement of potential gain outweighs the fear of possible loss. This is particularly true in the context of politics, where emotions tend to run high and the stakes feel enormously consequential.
Placing a bet on anything can create a small rush of adrenaline — a “gambler’s high.” This intensifies the already heightened emotions surrounding the political process.
This risk-seeking behavior can be especially appealing to younger voters, who may feel disillusioned with traditional forms of political engagement and feel that their vote doesn’t matter.
3. The desire for social connection
When you bet money, you’re joining a group of people who also bet money on the same outcome. It can create a feeling of community and group identity. In the same way that sports fans rally around their favorite teams, gamblers can use their bets as a way of signaling their allegiance to a certain candidate.
This is especially true in the age of social media, where all types of political performances take place.
This social aspect can make election betting feel like a communal activity, rather than a solitary action. It's a way to connect with like-minded others and feel part of a larger movement. Of course, it can also serve to further polarize and entrench political divisions.
The dark side of election betting
While the psychological appeal of election betting is understandable, the potential downsides of this trend are quite significant.
1. It shifts the focus from civil duty to personal gain
Voting could be considered a civic duty. Election betting shifts this focus of political engagement from civic duty to personal gain. When we attach a monetary value to electoral outcomes, we risk reducing the democratic process to just another opportunity to make money.
This shift in mindset can affect how we engage with politics. Rather than asking ourselves, "What policies are best for my community and country?" we may start asking, "Which outcome will yield the biggest payout for me?" Our political choices may become driven by financial self-interest rather than a desire to promote the greater good.
This approach to politics can erode the very foundations of democracy. If enough people start viewing elections primarily as a means to make themselves richer, the notion of a shared civic project will disappear. Politics will become just another zero-sum game, where one group's gain is necessarily another's loss.
Of course, the outcome of a presidential election may have an (indirect) effect on your wallet. But if everyone has a direct, vested financial interest, it could erode our feelings of democracy. The integrity of our electoral process depends on everyone feeling like they have an equal stake and an equal say.
2. It can amplify polarization and tribalism
When we have money riding on a particular outcome, our emotional investment in that result intensifies. We become more attached to our chosen candidate or party, and more hostile to their opponents. In an environment that’s already very politically polarized, this can be especially dangerous.
This dynamic is compounded by the social nature of election betting. When we publicly stake our money and reputation on a prediction, we feel pressure to defend that position at all costs. Admitting uncertainty or nuance could become a sign of weakness.
This can lead to a hardening of political attitudes and a decrease in open-mindedness. We become less willing to engage with different perspectives or consider new information that contradicts our bets. The "us vs. them" mentality that already plagues our politics is exacerbated by the adversarial framing of election wagers.
In a healthy democracy, we should be able to disagree without being disagreeable. We should be open to changing our minds based on new evidence or a compelling argument. But when our financial interests are tied to a particular political outcome, that flexibility becomes much harder to maintain.
3. It can skew perceptions and priorities
Election betting can also distort how we perceive and prioritize political information. When money is on the line, we may give extra weight to events or data points that seem likely to move the odds in our favor while discounting or ignoring those that don't fit our narrative. This is known in psychology as confirmation bias.
This selective attention can create a distorted picture of the political landscape, where our perceptions are shaped more by our financial stakes than by objective reality. It can lead us to overestimate the importance of certain events or trends while underestimating the significance of others.
Election betting can also incentivize a focus on short-term outcomes and horse-race metrics, at the expense of substantive policy debates. If the main goal is to predict who will win, rather than to evaluate the merits of their platforms, we may find ourselves paying more attention to superficial factors like polling bumps or fundraising totals than to the actual issues at stake.
This isn't to say that all election analysis is useless or harmful. But when our political discourse gets reduced to a series of wagers and talking points, we lose sight of the deeper questions and values that should be guiding our choices.
4. It trivializes the democratic process
When we treat politics as just another form of entertainment or speculation, we risk losing sight of the real-world consequences of our choices.
Elections aren't just abstract events to be wagered on from afar. They have profound impacts on people's lives, from the policies that shape our economy and society to the leaders who represent us on the world stage. Treating them as mere betting opportunities can breed a kind of cynical detachment, where we become more concerned with our own bottom line than with the greater good.
There's a difference between healthy engagement and treating democracy like a casino. When we reduce the solemn act of voting to just another transaction, we cheapen the hard-won rights and responsibilities of citizenship.
The gamification of politics can have a corrosive effect on public trust and participation. If people come to see the political process as rigged or manipulated for the benefit of a few bettors, they may become less likely to bother voting or engaging at all. Why participate in a system that feels more like a game show than an exercise in self-governance?
How to reclaim politics on principle
So what's the alternative? How can we reclaim a politics grounded in values? Here are a few of my suggestions:
Focus on issues, not outcomes. Instead of getting caught up in the horse race of who's up or down in the polls, focus your attention on the substantive policy at the heart of the election. Make an effort to understand the different positions and their potential impacts, and evaluate candidates based on their actual record and platform, not just their odds of winning.
Engage in constructive dialogue. Seek out opportunities to have meaningful conversations with people who hold different political views. Rather than trying to score points or win arguments, approach these exchanges with a spirit of curiosity and empathy. Try to understand where others are coming from, even if you don't ultimately agree with their conclusions.
Support grassroots activism and organizing. Instead of putting your money into election bets, consider donating to local organizations working to register voters, educate the public, or advocate for important causes. Volunteer your time and skills to help build power and momentum behind the issues you care about.
Vote with your values, not your wallet. When it comes time to cast your ballot, do so based on your sincere beliefs about what's best for your community and country, not on which outcome will yield the biggest payout. Remember that your vote is a precious right and responsibility, not a commodity to be traded for personal gain.
Cultivate a long-term perspective. Finally, try to resist the temptation to get too caught up in the moment-to-moment fluctuations of the political cycle. Remember that real change often happens slowly, and that setbacks are a normal part of the process. Stay focused on the bigger picture and the long-term vision you want to see realized.
At the end of the day, a healthy democracy isn't something we can bet on like a sporting event. It's a living, breathing organism that requires our ongoing care and attention. It's not about quick wins or big payouts, but about the hard, often unglamorous work of building a society that works for everyone.
